Credit·Line·14 Jun 2026
CRE Stress Is No Longer Just an Office Story
Commercial real estate delinquency rates by property type, 2015–2025 (annual average, %)
Source FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile (QBP); Trepp CMBS Delinquency Report; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database (DRCRELEXFACBS)
Method Delinquency rates represent annual averages of quarterly CMBS and bank CRE loan delinquency data. Office, Multifamily, Retail, and Industrial from Trepp CMBS series; Construction from FDIC QBP bank loan data. Values are approximate pending full quarterly verification.
AI Infrastructure·Line·5 Jun 2026
AI Capex Is Accelerating Faster Than Its Supply Chain
Hyperscaler capex, global semiconductor sales, and semiconductor equipment billings — indexed to 2023 = 100
Source Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta (SEC EDGAR annual filings); Semiconductor Industry Association / WSTS (global annual sales); SEMI WWSEMS (equipment billings)
Method All three series indexed to 2023 = 100 to compare rates of change rather than absolute dollar size. Microsoft reported on June fiscal year; Alphabet, Amazon and Meta on calendar years. The 2024 semiconductor figure reflects the WSTS final revised total of $630.5bn.
Market Structure·Line·4 Jun 2026
Passive Flows and S&P 500 Concentration Are Moving Together
Passive fund share of US equity AUM (%) and S&P 500 top-10 holdings weight (%), 2010–2024
Source Morningstar US Fund Flow Reports; Investment Company Institute (ICI); S&P Global Index Factsheets; Vanguard Investor Relations
Method Passive share represents estimated proportion of total US equity AUM held in index-tracking funds and ETFs. Top-10 weight is the combined weighting of the ten largest constituents of the S&P 500 index at year-end. Values are approximate annual snapshots pending full monthly data verification.
Market Structure·Line·1 Jun 2026
SoftBank Overtakes Toyota: Japan's Largest Company Flips
Market capitalisation, USD billions — SoftBank Group vs Toyota Motor, Q1 2024 – Q1 2026
Source Bloomberg; SoftBank Group Investor Relations; Toyota Motor Investor Relations; AXIS Editorial
Method Market capitalisation values are approximate quarterly averages derived from public market data. The crossover in Q1 2026 followed SoftBank's announcement of a €75bn commitment to AI data-centre capacity in France. Values should be verified against official IR disclosures.
Macro·Line·29 May 2026
Working-Age Populations Are Diverging, Not Ageing Equally
Working-age population index (2000 = 100), ages 15–64 — historical to 2024, projected to 2050 (UN medium variant)
Source United Nations World Population Prospects 2024 (medium variant); World Bank World Development Indicators (SP.POP.1564.TO); OECD Population and Labour Force Projections
Method Historical data (2000–2024) anchored to World Bank and OECD demographic series. Forward trajectories based on the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium-variant scenario. Indexed to 2000 = 100 for cross-country comparability. Values are for analytical illustration and do not represent absolute population levels.
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