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Briefing·2 Jul 2026·9 min read

Europe’s defense boom is real. Its defense capacity is not

The cancellation of Germany’s F126 frigate programme highlights a risk markets have largely ignored: budgets can be approved overnight, but industrial capability takes years to rebuild. The bottleneck in European rearmament is no longer political willingness — it is execution.

Macro · Credit

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Briefing·16 Jun 2026·8 min read

Argentina Already Changed. The Market Is Still Running the 2001 Playbook.

The consensus is debating the peso. The real question is what happens when the dollars arrive faster than the plumbing can handle them.

Macro · Geopolitics

Chart of the Week·29 May 2026·3 min read

Apparently Demographics Don't Matter Until They Do

Markets can ignore ageing populations for years. Demographics return the favour.

Macro

Briefing·28 May 2026·7 min read

The Parallel Economy

How AI wealth is fracturing the monetary transmission mechanism — and why the Fed may be flying blind on a growing share of the economy

Macro · AI Infrastructure